Why did some of the great cities of the past and ancient examples of urbanisation fail? While there are several instances of natural phenomena such as rivers changing course, or the well-known case of Pompeii, nine times out of ten, mankind was directly to blame for the untimely demise of a city.

In some instances, cities have been strategically removed, for example, as a result of a dam project or when a natural resource has been exhausted leaving the city with no purpose or reason to exist. In other instances, the disappearance has been unplanned or unexpected – catastrophic disease from inadequate sanitation or the tragic case of Chernobyl.

In most cases, the key to the success (or failure) of a city lies in our own hands. To understand what the future may need to look like, first it is vital to face a few inconvenient truths.

Population – Only a century ago, the population of the entire world stood at 2 billion, today it stands at 8 billion. UN demographers expect the world population to peak at 10.4 billion in 2086 and then enter a decline (https://ourworldindata.org/population-growth-over-time).

Resources – Let’s not forget, vast as she is, the resources available on mother earth are limited. No matter how ingenious we are, everything we design, invent or manufacture can be reverse engineered back to the basic building blocks of those dwindling resources.

Space – Half of the world’s habitable land is used for agriculture, with surprisingly only 1% of habitable land being urban or built up, these percentages will only continue to increase as the population expands (https://ourworldindata.org/land-use).

Location - The concept of climate refugees will become real as climate change raises sea levels. Many low-lying areas of Europe, Asia and the US may become flooded, or people may abandon well established urban areas which have become uninhabitable due to extreme heat.

To summarise, humankind is (or could become) a victim of its own success. No other life form on earth is quite as adept at burning through scant resources like we do.

Some solutions

• We must learn from our history - location and design must be future proofed as much as possible to avoid the vast majority of mankind related causal factors.
• The world-renowned architectural firm SOM were interviewed by National Geographic and they identified 10 key principles that would shape the city of the future – ecology, economy,infrastructure, water, waste, food, mobility, culture, energy and liveability. Their future city would be an intriguing blend of technology and nature with sustainability the cornerstone of every aspect of the design and construction (https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/graphics/see-sustainable-future-city-designed-for-people-and-nature).
• High altitude areas such as Bolivia and Peru may see huge expansion and investment due to their height above the new floodplain and temperate climate.
• We may see floating cities – purpose constructed or built off the back of huge fleets of repurposed ships.
• And, let’s not forget the metaverse…

Perhaps not quite as futuristic as living in the metaverse but not so far behind is the heart of the NEOM project - The Line.

The Line, the self-proclaimed revolution in urban living, will indeed be like nothing the world has ever seen before. The 170km long development will be a self-contained city designed to accommodate 9 million people on a meagre 34km² plot. A truly incredible saving in space compared to today’s major cities who have evolved organically over hundreds of years.

To help understand the magnitude of this statistic, if the people, amenities and services contained in that 34km² were in London, they would require 1600km² due to its inefficiency of design. The Line plans to use its zero-gravity living model, delivering a high-density footprint where space is traded for convenience.

Again, for perspective, within the line, there will be 265,000 people per km². This is ten times denser than Manhattan and four times denser than the inner districts of Manila, which are the two densest urban neighbourhoods on earth.

The shift away from traditional urban design paradigms is equally incredible. No roads, no cars, so no emissions, yet end to end transit in just 20 minutes. Access to all daily essentials within a 5-minute walk, and always only two minutes away from nature. 100% renewable energy, with 95% of land preserved for nature.

So is it feasible? Only time will tell. There are plenty of nay sayers among the architectural and engineering fraternities who say it can’t or shouldn’t be done for a variety of reasons. But with the rapid evolution of KSA over the last few years as it strives towards Vision 2030, and the Kingdom’s desire to create sustainable solutions to meet the needs of its growing population, the Line offers the opportunity to create a bold new vision for city life starting from a blank page. It appears there is a determination to make this project a success and an example to the wider global community.

One thing is for sure – globally something has to give.

The exponential growth in human population with a reciprocal increase in land use, resource depletion and CO2 emissions is simply unsustainable and given that currently 40% of annual global CO2 emissions emanate from the built environment radical, futuristic designs such as The Line, constructed in the right location may be the only real solution.